Jonathan Lin

Assistant Professor, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences

Jonathan Lin is an atmospheric scientist researching hurricane dynamics and impacts, including how hurricanes may evolve with warming. Lin, who runs his own forecasting model, says Milton’s path across the Gulf is rare, but that warming is, on average, creating more intense storms. 

Lin says:

“It is exceedingly rare for a hurricane to form in the western Gulf, track eastward, and make landfall on the Western coast of Florida. Hurricanes that strike Florida’s Gulf Coast typically form in the Caribbean Sea and make landfall as they recurve north eastward, like Hurricane Ian in 2020, for example. There are not really any hurricanes on record that have done this and made landfall at a Category 3+ status. This has big implications since the track of the storm plays a role in determining where the storm surge will be the largest.

“It is very likely that the peak intensity of hurricanes will increase with global warming. However, how the frequency of hurricanes will change with warming is still under debate, though it is becoming more clear that, on average, they will be more intense.”