Tip Sheets
Cornell experts: Even if a ‘peace’ deal is reached, Russia won’t give up on Ukraine
April 29, 2025
Media Contact
Adam Allington
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a 72-hour ceasefire in Ukraine starting May 8th, to mark the anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat in World War II. The announcement comes as the U.S. continues to press for a deal to end the 3-year-old war.
Bryn Rosenfeld
Assistant professor of government
Bryn Rosenfeld is an associate professor of government at Cornell University and studies post-communist politics and public opinion. Even if a long-term ceasefire is reached, she says Ukraine and its supporters should be concerned with more than just the threat of a new Russian invasion.
Rosenfeld says:
“They should also be concerned about the Kremlin trying to destabilize a democratically-elected Ukrainian government and undermining Ukraine as a functioning democracy well beyond a ceasefire or settlement. This is certainly not aligned with American interests.
“The Kremlin has made very clear that it finds unacceptable that the government in Kyiv remain in power. Even if Ukraine is forced to cede ‘significant’ territory, the Ukrainian state that remains will be more European in orientation, more anti-Russian, and more determined to build functioning democratic institutions. Even if NATO is off the table, Putin won’t be satisfied, because the direction that Ukrainians manifestly want their government to take is not going to be acceptable to him.
“The U.S. needs a strategy that anticipates this. Ukrainians certainly appreciate this. They are rightly concerned that a peace agreement which calls for new elections would provide an opportunity for Russian propaganda campaigns or covert actions to put in place candidates who would be more pliant.”
David Silbey
Professor of Military History and Policy
David Silbey is an adjunct associate professor of history at Cornell University, specializing in military history, defense policy and battlefield analysis. He notes that Russia's current military buildup along NATO’s Eastern border doesn’t amount to an immediate threat.
Silbey says:
“Russia’s planning for a post-Ukraine war situation where it would naturally refocus on NATO. They’ve lost catastrophic amounts of people and equipment in Ukraine and their front-line armored forces are currently closer to Poland size than they are to the old Soviet Union. It’ll be years before they recover.”
