Averell Schmidt

Assistant Professor of Government

Averell Schmidt, professor of government, whose research examines the politics of international cooperation, human rights, and political violence, says the key deliverable is that talks are even happening.  

Schmidt says:

“Lebanon has long requested talks; Israel has long resisted. Beyond the talks, I do not expect much in terms of ‘concrete’ outcomes. The U.S. has leverage over Israel insofar as Israel recognizes its actions threaten U.S. policy objectives with Iran. The fact that Israel is agreeing to participate in U.S.-mediated negotiations with Lebanon signals a sensitivity to U.S. interests and suggests U.S. leverage vis-a-vis Israel.  

“It is unclear how any agreement emerging from the talks today can shape reality on the ground, because the Lebanese government lacks the capacity to control Hezbollah. Israel wants to keep fighting against Hezbollah. Hezbollah (and Lebanon) would benefit from an immediate ceasefire. The U.S. does not want Israel's action in Lebanon to spoil its ceasefire with Iran. 

“I suspect U.S. policymakers believe that by brokering negotiations in Lebanon, they are signaling to the Iranians that they are attempting to reign the Israelis in and also allow Israel to continue fighting in Lebanon while talks continue. This allows the U.S. to address both Israeli and Iranian concerns with the ceasefire. I doubt either Iran or Israel will be satisfied with this for long.”