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September job report to show slow rebound, ‘hardening’ unemployment

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Rebecca Valli

The latest monthly employment report to be released on Friday will help show how fast the U.S. economy is rebounding, amidst renewed discussions in Congress over a second stimulus check.

Erica Groshen

Visiting Senior Scholar at the School of Industrial and Labor Relations

Erica Groshen is senior economics advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. She is a former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and has written extensively on how economies can recover from recessions

Groshen says:

“Based on the last few months of jobs reports, upward trends in COVID infections and the withdrawal of fiscal relief, I expect the recovery to show further slowing, with fewer jobs gained and a smaller decline in unemployment than last month.  

“I also expect more ‘hardening’ of unemployment, that is, rising shares of jobless workers on permanent layoff and of longer duration. Furthermore, the pattern of payroll job losses may begin to look more like previous recessions, such as climbing losses in durable goods manufacturing and nonresidential construction."   

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