Tip Sheets
Shutdown looms: Waiting on ACA subsidies renewal brings ‘significant’ threats
September 30, 2025
Media Contact
As a government shutdown looms, Democrats are tying their cooperation to Republican commitments to extend Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which Republicans say can wait until after the shutdown is averted. If ACA subsidies are not renewed today, it may be harder to bring premiums down later, says a Cornell University expert.
Nick Fabrizio is an associate teaching professor in Cornell’s health policy program and advises prominent health care institutions.
Nick Fabrizio
Teaching professor, Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy
“If the enhanced subsidies under ACA aren’t renewed by the end of the year, the effects on Americans enrolled in ACA marketplace plans—or those who would like to enroll—would likely be substantial.
“If Congress does not renew the enhanced subsidies by the end of 2025, health insurance will become more expensive—both in overall plan costs and in what families pay each month.
“Waiting until after September 30 to extend the subsidies makes it harder to bring premiums down later, meaning prices are very likely to rise. The threats are significant – the cost burden on enrollees will rise sharply, many enrollees may lose subsidy eligibility, millions could drop or lose coverage and subsequently the risk pool would worsen causing market instability.
“The ACA subsidies themselves aren’t directly tied to government operations, but their renewal depends on the same legislative process that funds the government. That makes a potential shutdown and the subsidy decision intertwined in timing, politics, and leverage.”
