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Chinese leader Xi Jinping referenced the “Thucydides Trap” in remarks welcoming visiting President Donald Trump. Popularized by political scientist Graham Allison, the term describes tensions that arise when a rising power challenges an established one, a dynamic that has often led to war.
Allen R. Carlson
Associate professor of government in the College of Arts & Sciences
Allen Carlson, an associate professor of government at Cornell University and an expert on Chinese foreign policy, says the comment cuts to the core of the U.S.-China relationship.
Carlson says:
“Xi cautiously framed the Thucydides Trap as a question: could the United States and China avoid such a fate? But notably, he did not say that they could. Later in the day, he warned that America’s ongoing support for Taiwan (which Beijing views as part of China) could lead to ‘clashes and even conflicts’ with the U.S., not words that suggest an easy way out of the trap of great power rivalry.
“Regardless of how Trump responds before leaving Beijing, the underlying tension between the two powers seems unlikely to dissipate.”
