Wendong Zhang

Associate Professor

Wendong Zhang, an assistant professor of applied economics and policy, says China is highly vulnerable to disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies and stands to be hurt, not helped, by the conflict.

Zhang says:

“China imports over half its crude oil from the Middle East and receives nearly 40% of all oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz — far more exposed than the U.S., which is a net energy exporter. That gives Beijing strong incentives to preserve ties with Gulf producers, not antagonize them by joining a U.S.-led military operation.

“China's diplomatic tradition strongly favors quiet, behind-the-scenes arrangements. Publicly acceding to a U.S. demand is politically untenable domestically. Any Chinese role in easing the crisis would more likely come through back channels than an open announcement.

“I'd push back on the idea that China ‘benefits’ from this conflict. Higher oil prices and disrupted trade flows hurt the Chinese economy directly. China has strategic reserves to absorb a short shock, but a prolonged Strait closure would be genuinely costly — this is a vulnerability for Beijing, not an opportunity.”

Allen R. Carlson

Associate professor of government in the College of Arts & Sciences

Allen Carlson, associate professor of government at Cornell University and an expert on Chinese foreign policy, says China sees the crisis as U.S.-made and has little reason to help.

Carlson says:

“Trump’s request that Xi provide support for breaking this partial blockade has fallen on deaf ears in Beijing. While both Trump and Xi have an interest in seeing a quick end to the conflict with Iran, they do not see eye to eye on either the necessity of the war, or on how to end it.

“Rather than acting, Beijing is content for now to remain on the sidelines of the conflict, watching intently to see which way the wind is blowing and whether the war will leave the United States stronger or weaker. At the same time, the oil clock for China ticks louder with each day that the Gulf oil disruption continues. The outstanding question for Xi and Trump is whether time is more on the side of China or the U.S.

“It was unclear even before the conflict ignited whether Beijing and Washington would be able to find common ground on the trade and security issues that divide them. After the bombing started, the prospects for a productive summit grew even dimmer.”