As certain clairvoyant groundhogs lead the charge toward spring, Cornell University climatologists say that, statistically, the bulk of winter's bad weather already may be behind us as of Feb 2.

Groundhog Day, the folklorist's notation of winter's halftime, is a harbinger of warmer temperatures, and climatologists at the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell can prove it. In Philadelphia and Baltimore, for example, two of the last 10 winters featured the coldest days in either February or March, according to Art DeGaetano, a climatologist at the center.

New York City and Washington, D.C., saw but three winters in the last 10 with the year's lowest temperatures occurring during February or March.

For most of the cities in the Northeast and the Middle Atlantic States, between 40 and 60 percent of the years have had their heaviest snows fall in the last two months of the season. DeGaetano attributes such heavy late-winter snows to more moisture in the air, mixing with still- cold atmospheric temperatures.

"Obviously, there is some variability from year to year, but in the long run, the climatological statistics are pretty consistent," DeGaetano said. "The good news this year is that we're in good shape for water, and this is the time of year when reservoirs and groundwater begin filling up. Climatologically, this is the period of recharge." Last summer's drought was taking shape in the drier-than- normal winter. "If we had back-to-back years like that, it would be terrible news. We saw groundwater levels reach dangerously low levels last year," he said.