The U.S. Census Bureau could improve the quality of its population estimates by working more closely with a partnership of local, state and federal officials, Warren Brown, a leading Cornell demographer, testified to a U.S. House subcommittee Sept. 6.

The Federal State Cooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE) is an ongoing partnership between the Census Bureau and state demographers that began in the late 1960s. Brown reported that during the 1980s the Census Bureau and individual states jointly selected methods and inputs most appropriate for that state in producing population estimates.

In the early 1990s the Census Bureau, under pressure to produce estimates more quickly, adopted a single methodology for all states that relied more heavily on federal data sources.

The Census Bureau could improve the accuracy of its estimates, he said, with "a closer working relationship" with state and local governments with the help of modern information technology.

"This calls for a return to earlier practices when the states were full and equal partners with the Census Bureau in the estimates process," said Brown, director of Cornell's Program on Applied Demographics and research director of the New York Census Research Data Center, to the U.S. House Committee on Government Reform Subcommittee on Federalism and the Census. Brown represents New York in the FSCPE and is past chair of its steering committee.

The Census Bureau takes a national head count every 10 years, as it has since the 18th century. Between those decennial census counts, the federal government issues population estimates, which are widely used by policy-makers and private businesses. Much of Brown's testimony was based on a paper that he and Joseph Salvo of the New York City Department of City Planning presented to the Census Bureau's workshop on "Population Estimates: Meeting Users Needs" held July 19.

Brown conceded that "The Census Bureau's decision in the early 1990s to streamline the estimates process may have been appropriate at that time. But today, with vastly better means for data sharing via the Internet and for data processing and display with high-speed computers running geographic information systems, that which was impractical 15 years ago is doable today."

Brown said that improving the accuracy of federal population estimates will better ensure that citizens receive the congressional appropriations they deserve, municipal planners will have sound data to plan development, lawmakers will have good information when they create public policy, and private-sector businesses will have accurate data for identifying growing markets.

"From my perspective, the Census Bureau cannot make substantial improvements in their estimates unless they welcome state and local government into a full partnership," Brown said. "Much of the critical data on where people live, go to school and work belongs to state and local governments."

Working more closely with the partnership would enable the Census Bureau to identify problems early, he added. "State and local governments cannot just complain that estimates are too low. They need to provide essential feedback in a timely fashion. They need to take some ownership of the process. It should be a partnership and that requires active participation at all levels."