Economists ponder future of economy at NYC alumni event

A powerful and focused stimulus would help boost the U.S. economy, agreed Cornell economists Steven Kyle and Sharon Poczter '01 speaking at an alumni networking event July 10 in New York City.

The event, "Too Slow to Recover? The Next Four Years of U.S. Economic Policy," at Cornell's ILR Conference Center, featured economists from the Charles Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management and attracted some 80 alumni and guests.

"The stimulus should act like jumper cables on a car," said Poczter, an assistant professor. "It should be quick and powerful" and should target private consumption. "It's going to be a fixed cost on our balance sheet for a long time, so it better be good and it better be right. It better be focused."

Kyle concurred, noting that while the 2009 stimulus helped some, it was not enough to get a healthy growth path re-established. "Our current economic problems are voluntary in the sense that if we had the political will, we could get out of it in short order," he explained. "If we had a big enough stimulus back in '09, we would not be where we are right now."

Much of the 2009 stimulus was devoted to tax cuts, Kyle said, which did not put money directly in the hands of those most likely to spend immediately.

"In order to get a tax cut, you have to be making money," said Kyle, an associate professor.

Poczter also pointed to employment as a long-term issue. "There's no such thing as getting a high school diploma and living the good life any more. The requisite skills to live a comfortable life are changing," she said. The polarization of job opportunities -- the higher demand for high-waged and high-skilled managers and not much opportunity at the midlevel -- also impact growth. "Until we start dealing with these issues, growth will be slow," she said.

Among the many uncertainties ahead is the need for financial regulations to prevent excesses that led to the 2008 meltdown, the economists said.

"Dodd-Frank does exist, but it really is rather toothless," Kyle noted, adding that recent headlines raise questions about whether everyone in the industry has learned a lesson.

Economic instability in Europe -- including the 25 percent unemployment rate and the questionable future of the euro -- will also impact the U.S. economy over the next few years, they said. The upcoming U.S. election will play a key role in determining the direction of the country's fiscal future.

The event was co-sponsored by the Dyson School and Cornell's College of Agriculture and Life Sciences.

Claire Curry is a freelance writer in New York City.