Two months ago, most Americans would not have attached political significance to Big Bird, an empty chair or 47 percent. But in election season, or as professional pollster Doug Usher, M.A. '97, Ph.D. '99, calls the "silly season," no one can predict what will happen.

Usher, who analyzes trends as part of his job, discussed this year's presidential election Oct. 17 in Malott Hall from a pollster's perspective. He has worked for a variety of polling organizations researching public opinion for political candidates, Fortune 500 corporations and nonprofit institutions. Usher founded the Purple Poll, a monthly nonpartisan look at swing states and key issues.

To explain the importance of polls, Usher likened an election to a football game without the referees or official scoreboard. In the heat of the moment, fans will feel that their team is ahead, and polls provide a variety of scoreboards. "Polling when it's done right," said Usher, "is a lot more than just what the score is, but it's what the strategy is you can use to win."

Out of the 12 states that Usher believes are up for grabs in the upcoming election, three are must-wins for the next president. "Colorado, Ohio and Virginia are the cake. Florida is Obama's icing. Pennsylvania is Romney's icing," said Usher. The candidates will fight for the three must-win states by maintaining a strong national campaign and reaching out to communities, he said.

Usher identified three things to watch in the upcoming weeks: fundraising, where the candidates visit and campaign rhetoric. In particular, Usher noted that if one of the campaigns declares that it has a "firewall" in a certain state, complains about poll methodologies or claims "the only poll that matters is on Election Day," it is likely on the losing side.

In recent decades, presidential elections have become tighter, he said, and polling has become increasingly valuable. For every presidential election from 1824 to 1988, Usher said that the average margin of victory was 10 percent. Over the last six elections, that average has fallen to 5 percent. In Usher's analysis, increasingly tight national elections have led to more gridlock. Usher believes this race will be no exception -- he predicts a 2-3 percent difference will decide the election.

What's causing these increasingly tight races? Usher blames Washington and polling. In the past, elections could be lopsided because the party picked the wrong candidate or the wrong strategy. However, during the primary process, polling provides the party with a sense of which candidate resonates with voters and which strategies will be most successful.

However, polls are not always accurate. "People are terrible reporters of their own behavior," Usher said. He offered the war in Iraq as evidence. Before President George W. Bush invaded Iraq, the vast majority of Americans opposed going to war without the support of most of our allies. However, after the war began, the majority of Americans supported the war. Usher attributes this change in opinion to media coverage of the war and the wording of the polls.

The talk was co-sponsored by Cornell in Washington and the Department of Government. Robert Hutchens, director of Cornell in Washington, who enlisted the Cornell Democrats and Cornell Republicans to publicize the talk, remarked on the impressive bipartisanship shown by the two groups in working together to advertise the event.

Sam Wolken '14 is a student writer intern for the Cornell Chronicle.