Last year's Christmas was anything but "white" in the Northeast. Green was the rule in most areas. "'White' Christmases are not a sure thing in the Northeast every year," said Keith Eggleston, senior climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, explaining that most of the region saw little or no snow on the ground for last year's holiday.

The center has released this year's statistical probabilities chart for a white Christmas for major metropolitan areas and other selected cities in the Northeast. It is not a forecast.

Last year the Erie, Pa., area was the only area to see any major amount of snow, when it recorded 4 inches on the ground Christmas morning. Eggleston said that snow was fresh from a Christmas Eve and early Christmas morning snowfall.

Caribou, Maine, which traditionally is the Northeast's place to be Christmas morning for snow, had about an inch on the ground that day last year. Other usually snowy places like Concord, N.H., and Portland, Maine, saw no snow on the ground on last year's holiday morning. Burlington, Vt., picked up a trace. Syracuse, N.Y., recorded an inch on the ground but received more snow Christmas Day.

In 1995 central, upstate New York and New England had a white Christmas. Two years ago, Concord, N.H., and Syracuse, N.Y., saw 10 inches of snow on the ground on the holiday morning, while Portland, Maine, recorded 13 inches, and Burlington, Vt., had 15 inches.

This year Caribou's chances of a white Christmas look bright. Between Dec. 1 and Dec. 11, 1997, Caribou has received 18.9 inches of snow, which is slightly more than usual, according to Eggleston. "Caribou, Maine, is the closest thing we have to a sure thing for a white Christmas in the Northeast," he said.

Probabilities of a white Christmas

City              Probabilties of 1 inch   Amount of snow   Record snow    Year
                  or more of snow          on the ground    depth on 
                  on the ground            Christmas        Christmas  
                  Christmas morning        morning 1996            


Caribou, Maine          97                   1                33          1978
Concord, N.H.           87                   0                26          1970
Portland, Maine         83                   0                39          1970
Burlington, Vt.         77               Trace                32          1970
Syracuse, N.Y.          70                   1                17          1929

Binghamton, N.Y.        67               Trace                14          1969
Albany, N.Y.            63                   0                19          1966
Rochester, N.Y.         60               Trace                13          1944
Hartford, Conn.         57                   0                10          1995
Buffalo, N.Y.           57               Trace                18          1960

Ithaca, N.Y.            57               Trace                13          1969
Erie, Pa.               57                   4                23          1989
Cleveland               50                   1                13          1995
Williamsport, Pa.       43               Trace                10          1960
Harrisburg, Pa.         40                   0                10          1961

Providence, R.I.        37                   0                 6          1963
Beckley, W.Va.          36                   0                13          1963
Pittsburgh              33                   0                 7          1963
Bridgeport, Conn.       30                   0                 8          1966
Charleston, W.Va.       30                   0                 5          1966

Boston                  23                   0                11          1995
Newark, N.J.            23                   0                 8          1966
Baltimore               13                   0                 8          1966
New York City           13                   0                 8          1947
Washington, D.C.        13                   0                 7          1966

Wilmington, Del.        10                   0                12          1966
Philadelphia            10                   0                12          1966
Atlantic City, N.J.      7                   0                 6          1966
Richmond, Va.            7                   0                 4          1966

EDITORS: Please call the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell, (607) 255-1751, for detailed information about your town, even if it is not listed on the accompanying chart.