Northeast suffers worsening drought: extreme in Maryland, severe in areas of Delaware, West Virginia and New Jersey

From the mountains of West Virginia to the shores of the northern Chesapeake Bay, drought conditions grip the middle Atlantic states. According to climate statistics released today, the drought shows signs of worsening, according to climatologists at the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC) at Cornell University.

Most of Maryland is suffering either severe or extreme drought conditions, based on statistics provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center in Washington. Over 10 months, from Aug. 1, 1998, to May 31, 1999, Maryland had below-average precipitation resulting in a "precipitation deficit" of between 8 inches and 14 inches, says Keith Eggleston, a senior climatologist at the NRCC.

Southern Delaware had a precipitation deficit of 8.4 inches in the same period.

All of coastal New Jersey suffered from a precipitation deficit of 6.8 inches for the 10-month period, putting that area into a severe drought. Northeast West Virginia had a 7.2- inch deficit, putting that portion of the state into severe drought conditions. The northern and western parts of Virginia are also are suffering a severe drought, says Eggleston.

Maine, most of upstate New York, much of Pennsylvania, the rest of New Jersey, southwestern and central West Virginia and central Virginia are experiencing moderate drought conditions.

"One month of dry weather does not really impact the big picture, but a prolonged period of dryness has a more noticeable effect on important things like ground water supplies," says Eggleston.

To climatologists, these conditions are not a surprise. Last April was the 12th driest April in 105 years of record-keeping for the 12-state Northeast region. Normally, the region would see 3.46 inches of precipitation in April. Instead it received 2.15 inches, or 62 percent of normal (based on a 30-year average). New England was particularly dry with monthly deficits of more than 2.5 inches: it was the driest April on record in Maine, the second driest in New Hampshire and Vermont.

May was also very dry in the Northeast. The average precipitation was 2.73 inches, or 71 percent of the normal 3.84 inches, making it the 25th driest May on record. Maryland, Delaware and West Virginia reported the largest precipitation deficits in May. The Northeast averaged temperatures that were 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the normal 56.1 for the month. The warm weather produced increased evaporation, further depleting the amount of soil moisture available for plants, says Eggleston.

Short-term water needs, such as those of lawns and crops, can be met by a few good soaking rains, says Eggleston. Long-term precipitation deficits create a lower water table, resulting in lower reservoir and well levels.

"We can use any rain that we can get," Eggleston says. "One or two heavy rainfall events could help things that rely on the short-term, like gardens, crops and agricultural interests. But for more ground water, we'll need a few months of above-normal precipitation."

The latest outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center provides hope for some relief in coming months. Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected for Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey northward in June through August. However, for July through September, only New York, Pennsylvania and Vermont have a forecast of above-normal precipitation.

"When you get into a long-term drought, remember that it took a prolonged period of dryness to get here. It's going to take the reverse, over several months, to relieve these conditions," says Eggleston.

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