ITHACA, N.Y. -- There is a 100 percent chance of sand all along the beaches of Atlantic City, N.J., Christmas morning, but only an 8 percent chance of snow. If you are looking for a White Christmas in the northeastern United States -- or trying to avoid one -- the top spots are the usual suspects: Pinkham Notch, N.H., (with nearly 100 percent chance of snow), Caribou, Maine, and, in New York state, Boonville and Old Forge, according to Keith Eggleston, senior climatologist with Cornell University's Northeast Regional Climate Center.

A lower probability of snow -- although still at a high 71 percent -- is forecast for Syracuse, N.Y., and Portland, Maine.

The table below lists the probability of a White Christmas -- defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Dec. 25 -- at 36 locations throughout the Northeast, compiled by Eggleston. Percentages are based on an average of statistics collected from 1951 to 2000. The sites were chosen from hundreds of towns and cities that are representative of their areas, said Eggleston. For instance, Boonville made the cut because it lies along the Tug Hill plateau in the lake-effect snow belt of northern New York. On the other hand, Utica, N.Y., was added after several citizens of that very snowy town noted its conspicuous absence from the annual White Christmas report and complained to Eggleston. For the record, Uticans have a 71 percent chance of waking up to snow Dec. 25.

Pinkham Notch reigns supreme as the place to go walking in a winter wonderland on Christmas Day, with a 96 percent probability of snow. In second place, at 94 percent, is Caribou, Maine, an honor it shares with Boonville. Third, at 93 percent, is Old Forge, whose likely Yuletide snow will keep its road crews on call Christmas Eve as well.

St. Johnsbury, Vt., ranks fourth on the table, with an 89 percent chance of a White Christmas. The probabilities then drop to 80 percent in Norfolk, Conn., 76 percent in Concord, N.H., and 74 percent in Ashburnham, Mass. Binghamton, N.Y., and Burlington, Vt., share a 69 percent chance. Meanwhile, Harrisburg, Pa., and Pittsburgh share a 1-in-3 chance of seeing the white stuff, while Philadelphia has but a 12 percent chance. Baltimore and New York City both have a 14 percent

chance, while the chance of a white Christmas in Washington, D.C., is 12 percent, no matter what color the terror alert code.

Travelers beware: These are merely probabilities. Old Man Winter is nothing if not a quick-change artist, so check area forecasts for updated weather advisories prior to travel.

 City                       Probability of 1 inch                             of Snow on ground                                 Dec. 25 (percentage)  Pinkham Notch, N.H.           96 Caribou, Maine                94 Boonville, N.Y.               94 Old Forge, N.Y.               93 St. Johnsbury, Vt.            89 Norfolk, Conn.                80 Concord, N.H.                 76 Ashburnham, Mass.             74 Portland, Maine               71 Utica, N.Y.                   71 Syracuse, N.Y.                71 Binghamton, N.Y.              69 Burlington, Vt.               69 Oswego, N.Y.                  64 Ithaca, N.Y.                  59 Rochester, N.Y.               59 Buffalo, N.Y.                 58 Erie, Pa.                     57 Canaan Valley, W.Va.          56 Albany, N.Y.                  51 Hartford, Conn.               49 Cleveland                     46 Beckley, W.Va.                38 Pittsburgh                    33 Harrisburg, Pa.               33 Providence, R.I.              29 Charleston, W.Va.             27 Boston                        24 Bridgeport, Conn.             24 Newark, N.J.                  22 Baltimore                     14 New York City                 14 Wilmington, Del.              13 Washington, D.C.              12 Philadelphia                  12 Atlantic City, N.J.            8 

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