New York state’s population could shrink by more than 2 million people over the next 25 years – a decline of more than 13%, according to a new report.

The report, prepared by researchers from the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy’s Program on Applied Demographics (PAD) with funding from New York state, projects that New York faces a significant population decline due to low fertility rates and aging that has not been offset by new arrivals.

Credit: Caitlin Cook/Cornell University

This latest round of data is an update from the last published projections produced in 2018, with newly available data, including the 2020 Census. The underlying methodology was also updated, and this round starts with projections for the state as a whole.

“The projections confirm what we have been seeing for some time, which is that if the demographic trends in the state do not change, its population will continue to decline,” said PAD lead analyst Jan Vink. “Conservative estimates suggest a population decrease of 1 million by 2050, but we think an even greater decline is more likely.”

The New York population projections illustrate possible routes of population change and help describe future population makeup, allowing policymakers statewide to develop strategies to impact population change and to explore “what if” scenarios for important state policies related to childcare and eldercare, education, and housing. They show, for instance, that the number of people age 0-17 is projected to decline between 10% and 25% over the coming 25 years amid a decline in the number of births.

The method used for these projections is a cohort-component method, where each component of population change – births, deaths and migration both in and out of the state – is projected separately, and the size of those components is dependent on the age characteristics at that time. The projected components show that the number of deaths will outpace the number of births somewhere during the next decade.

In this year’s statewide projections, Vink and his team produced three scenarios based on demographic trends, with the most aggressive scenario yielding a population decline from the state’s population of 19.7 million as of July 1, 2023 to just over 17 million by 2050. The team expects to furnish county-by-county population projections in spring of 2025. Domestic migration flows are the biggest driver of population change in New York and also hardest to project, Vink said.

Located within the Cornell Population Center at the Brooks School, PAD combines skills in demographics, economics, statistics, data gathering and data analysis in order to provide a variety of organizations with data, information and advice. PAD works closely with the New York State Department of Labor, the U.S. Census Bureau and other organizations to provide consultation and support in their activities, including serving as the New York state representative in the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates.

“This is the most-requested data product we produce,” said Cornell Population Center Director Matt Hall. “Policymakers want to know to what extent the crystal ball of demography can project the future of New York state’s population so they can plan for the future. It’s an important collaboration and we’re grateful to our partners at the state and federal level for the opportunity to serve the public interest through our research.”

View the full New York state population projections here.

Giles Morris is assistant dean for communications in the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy.