Students are returning to Ithaca for the spring semester with significantly fewer COVID-19 infections than university models projected, an encouraging development that keeps in-person instruction on track to resume as planned on Feb. 7.

With about a quarter of undergraduates still making their way back to campus over the next week, the outlook could change, and university leaders are closely watching for any shift in trends.

So far, however, they are cautiously optimistic that procedures implemented for students’ return – including mandatory booster shots, self-identification of students infected within the past 90 days outside of Cornell’s own testing program, testing before students left for Ithaca, and rapid arrival testing – are working.

“It’s a good start to the semester,” said Provost Michael I. Kotlikoff. “We know that the increased transmissibility and higher prevalence of the omicron variant will result in more cases than we have seen in previous semesters. However, we have succeeded in bringing back the bulk of our undergraduate students while minimizing the additional virus load on campus. The positivity rate for returning students is much lower than what we had anticipated.”

University models had projected roughly 8% of returning undergraduates – around 1,300 students – to test positive on arrival, numbers in line with what some peer institutions have experienced early this year, amid ongoing concerns about the highly transmissible omicron variant.

The potential for large numbers requiring isolation was a key reason for starting classes Jan. 24 with two weeks of virtual instruction, which enabled a staggered return of students and the opportunity to attend classes even if isolated.

But since residence halls opened Jan. 18, Kotlikoff said, the actual positivity rate among undergraduates living on and off campus is less than 2%, with fewer than 80 undergraduate students currently in isolation.

In addition to tracking positive cases among arriving students, the university continues to report members of the campus community who test positive either through Cornell’s testing program or through self-testing. Surveillance and symptomatic testing are expected to continue to identify positive cases at a higher rate than in previous semesters due to omicron.

Leaders attribute undergraduates’ successful reentry to date to several factors, from timing to an evolution of testing strategies following December’s omicron surge.

Cornell’s spring semester started later than some peers’, which provided a bit more time for recovery from omicron infections sustained over the winter break.

But decisions to open with virtual instruction and to adjust testing – increasing reliance on more rapid antigen tests – appear to have played an important part as well.

Each returning student was required to complete an antigen test 24 hours prior to departing for campus, and to upload results through the Daily Check system. To make that possible, the university mailed more than 5,300 test kits to students who requested them.

Students are then given another antigen test immediately upon arrival to campus. Though less sensitive than the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests performed by the Cornell COVID-19 Testing Laboratory, antigen tests return results within 15 minutes rather than a day or two. That helps minimize a potentially critical window when an infected student could spread the virus.

Pre-departure and arrival tests are being followed by twice weekly tests to help catch any secondary infections quickly. Students must comply with testing requirements to access coursework.

Dr. Gary Koretzky ‘78, vice provost for academic integration and professor of medicine at Weill Cornell Medicine, said spring semester planning has prioritized campus safety and minimizing academic disruption.

As part of those goals, Cornell also soon plans to make available on-campus testing for students, faculty or staff with mild to moderate COVID symptoms. Previously, symptomatic employees had to visit a Tompkins County Health Department site.

“We are gratified that we have seen little spread on campus as we have reopened for the spring semester,” Koretzky said. “This is a result of both our public health policies and the availability of testing with rapid resulting. Adding symptomatic testing, with its speed and convenience, will be an important part of our strategy to identify people who are positive early on.”

On a recent evening, Lisa Nishii, vice provost for undergraduate education, helped distribute tests to several hundred students who were arriving at late hours from around the world and, following university guidance, made a testing site their first stop.

“I had a chance to see firsthand that students are taking this very seriously and doing the right thing,” Nishii said “We are not out of the woods yet, and the next week is really critical. We need students to remain cautious, be diligent about testing and refrain from socializing. But student compliance with new requirements is another example of how as a community we’ve continued to learn through this pandemic and adapt to our evolving strategy. I am thankful to them.”

Mary Opperman, vice president and chief human resources officer, also thanked employees for their work helping to make an in-person spring semester possible.

Another important step has been to identify students recently infected with COVID, whether on campus or at home. Per federal and state public health guidance, individuals with resolved infections begin several months during which they are no longer sick or infectious, but could still spuriously test positive.

For that reason, roughly a quarter of undergraduates currently are classified as No Action Positives, because they are in 90-day periods when no testing or isolation is necessary.

With in-person instruction expected to resume Feb. 7, university experts are optimistic the risk of classroom virus transmission will remain low, as in previous semesters.

Modeling led by Peter Frazier, the Eleanor and Howard Morgan Professor of Engineering in the School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, projects that omicron’s higher transmission risk will be offset by the combination of mandated vaccines and boosters and wearing of higher-quality masks, which the university is providing across campus.

“Based on those counteracting factors, we think the classrooms are going to remain a very safe place,” Frazier said. “The number of infections that we’ve seen among returning students is significantly lower than what we expected, so we remain cautiously optimistic about our ability to safely provide in-person, residential instruction.”