Climatologists determine probabilities of snow on the ground for the Northeast on Dec. 25

About 55 miles north of I-95's northern-most point, along U.S. Route 1, is Caribou, Maine, where the school system teaches 1,700 students, the public library holds 50,000 volumes, winter sports enthusiasts ride outhouses and canoes downhill at their annual Winter Carnival or buzz across 1,300 miles of groomed snowmobile and cross-country ski trails.

But, if you go to Caribou on Dec. 25, don't expect to see any green because Caribou is the likeliest place in the Northeast to see snow on the ground Christmas morning. Residents there have a 97 percent chance of seeing at least 1 inch of snow that day, according to the annual White Christmas Probabilities Chart released today by the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University. The chart lists 28 cities in the Northeast.

In 1978, snow was piled high in Caribou. Meteorologists measured 33 inches of snow there on that Christmas -- the whitest of its white Christmases. Last year, Caribou had a mere 8 inches of snow on the ground Christmas morning. Since 1940, the start of the climate center's official weather records, the only green Christmases in Caribou were in 1973 and 1957, when there was but a trace of snow.

"They are most likely to have snow there because once it snows, it stays on the ground," said Keith Eggleston, climatologist with the NRCC. "Places like Syracuse and Buffalo get more snow on an annual basis, but the snow cover in Caribou is more durable."

Following close on the heels of Caribou is Concord, N.H., where the chance of a white Christmas is 87 percent. Last year the city had 10 inches on the ground, and in 1970 it had as much as 26 inches on Christmas morning.

Portland, Maine's, chances of at least 1 inch of snow on Christmas morning stands at 83 percent. Last year they had 13 inches there. Burlington, Vt., follows on the list at 77 percent, and Syracuse, N.Y., rounds out the Northeast's top five with a 70 percent chance.

The probabilities for major metropolitan areas include: Buffalo, 57 percent; Pittsburgh, 33 percent; Boston, 23 percent; New York City, 13 percent; Baltimore, 13 percent; Philadelphia, 10 percent; Cleveland, 10 percent; and Washington, D.C., 10 percent.

If you don't want a white Christmas, head south or to a coastal town. Both Atlantic City, N.J., and Richmond, Va., have a mere 7 percent chance of a white Christmas. Last year, there was no snow on the ground in either place, as in most years. But a winter storm in 1966 dumped 6 inches on Atlantic City and 4 inches on Richmond.