Students battle ravenous bugs in math modeling contest

In 2002, the emerald ash borer, originally from Asia, was discovered in Michigan, munching away on the state's treasured ash trees.

Since then, the beetle has chomped its way through more than 70 million ash trees, devastating forests and causing billions of dollars in damage in parts of the Midwest and Pennsylvania. Now, the bug has been found in New York state -- and researchers are scrambling to come up with a battle plan.

Last month, 48 undergraduates, divided into 16 teams, joined the effort as part of the annual Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM). They had just four days to research the issue, create a mathematical model to describe how the bug could spread and recommend a mitigation strategy.

For the students, the contest was a chance to apply the modeling and simulation skills they've learned in class to a real-world problem -- and, perhaps just as importantly, to test their ability to manage time, work as a team and sift through gobs of information for the most important elements.

"You have to very quickly determine what you can and can't feasibly do in the time allotted," said honorable mention recipient Matt Guay '11. Collaboration between team members is vital.

"For a lot of people … it can be very easy to go through your undergraduate career and never really get any sort of skills working as a team," Guay said. In the contest, "you have a very, very short time window, and you have to do a lot of work, and if there are problems dealing with other people in that scenario, teams can fall apart."

Guay's team stayed intact -- and their entry (titled "Emerald Ash Borer, Dispersion and Control: A Non-Boring Story") recommended testing and quarantining trees as the most effective mitigation strategy.

(Overall, the outlook for New York state's ash trees was gloomy, thanks in part to the long lag time between when the bugs infest a tree and when they're first detected.)

The two winning teams -- Paul Grigas, Greg Malysa and Zach Owen (all Class of 2011); and Harong Chen '11, Tiffany Low '11 and Ivana Thng '12 -- along with the two teams that earned honorable mentions, will represent Cornell in the International Mathematical Contest in Modeling, held online Feb. 18-22.

The winners also got gift cards from the Cornell Store, which co-sponsored the contest along with the Departments of Math and of Operations Research and Information Engineering.

This year's judging was particularly difficult, said Alex Vladimirsky, a math professor and contest co-organizer, because the submissions were so good.

"The students who actually took courses from me know that I don't say those things very often," he said. "We are very, very much impressed."

Entomologist Mark Whitmore, who reviewed some of the submissions and spoke at the contest wrap-up meeting, agreed.

"I was really impressed. That was really an amazing feat," he said. "I've been thinking abut this problem for years, and some of the stuff you guys came up with is stuff that is the cutting edge of what we're looking at."

That was gratifying for winners Owen, Grigas and Malysa.

All had two exams the next week -- and even working around-the-clock, they worried that their submission was not as complete as they would have liked. "We were really hoping to get another shot at it when we were not so busy," said Owen.

And they will, at the international competition in February.

Their advice to students considering the MCM next year? "Just do it. It's intense, but rewarding," said Grigas.

"And don't get discouraged if you think yours isn't the best in the world," Owen added. "You never know."

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Blaine Friedlander