New York state’s aging population isn’t only evident in more graying residents, but in a declining number of school children – down more than a quarter-million over the past decade, according to a new analysis by Cornell demographers.

Almost 90% of the state’s school districts recorded enrollment declines from 2013-14 to 2023-24, as total K-12 enrollment dropped from roughly 3.1 million to 2.8 million students, according to the latest Topics in Demography (TiDbit) research brief released by the Cornell Program on Applied Demographics, part of the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy.

The decade also saw shifts in how New York youth are being educated, reflecting growth in school choice and impacts from the pandemic, researchers said. In New York City, the state’s largest district, the number of students attending traditional public schools fell by 19.1%, or about 187,000 children. That loss was offset slightly by growth in publicly funded charter schools (more than three-quarters of which are in New York city), whose enrollment statewide more than doubled to 6.5%. The share of students being homeschooled also doubled, to 1.8%, and private school enrollment ticked up slightly, to 13.6%.

Traditional public schools still outnumber others by a wide margin: nearly 4,700, compared with 1,800 private schools and 370 charter schools. The “Big Five” school districts – New York City, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Yonkers – now serve 37% of all students, down from 40% in 2013-14.

“An aging population is the big driver of this pattern of K-12 enrollment decline, including people having fewer children and at later ages,” said Leslie Reynolds, a research support specialist. “The loss in enrollment has been gradual over time, with some increase during Covid, but overall stemming from the larger-scale demographic change.”

As K-12 enrollment declined – while New York’s total population stayed flat at roughly 19.9 million – the statewide graduation rate improved more than 7 percentage points, to 86.3% in 2023-24, with girls outperforming boys. Rates trailed in Big Five districts – 83.3% in New York City public schools and 74.6% across the others – and 79.6% among charter schools statewide.

Wealth and poverty are correlated to K-12 outcomes across the state. Students in “low need” districts (those with lower student needs and higher local wealth) are the most likely to graduate and go on to college or other post-secondary education within 16 months – 95.7% and 87.9%, respectively. In “average need” districts, nine of 10 students graduate but a smaller share continue their educations. In “high need” urban/suburban districts, the graduation rate drops to about 77% and fewer than 6 of 10 students pursue post-secondary education.

The Syracuse and Rochester city school districts have two of the highest district poverty rates in the state, at 37.9% and 34.4%, respectively, compared to 17.4% statewide. The top five district poverty rates also include Kiryas Joel Village (45.2%) in Orange County, Jasper-Troupsberg (37.1%) in Steuben County, and East Ramapo (34.1%) in Rockland County.

The research brief also includes rankings showing which districts spend the biggest percentage of their budget on instruction and transportation, and which have the highest or lowest percentage of school-age children, students enrolled in private schools and learning English as a second language. In total, 1 in 10 public school students speaks a language other than English at home, most often Spanish.

Reynolds said the research brief aims to highlight big-picture trends in K-12 education, and to prompt local districts and communities to examine how their own conditions and trajectories may vary.

“We have these large trends, but every school district isn’t experiencing them the same way,” Reynolds said. “Pay attention to the shifting landscape in your own district, and see if the needs that are coming up match what you’re offering.”

Combining expertise in demographics, economics, statistics, data gathering and data analysis, the Program on Applied Demographics informs policy evaluation and decision-making across New York state, serving people and organizations in all 62 counties.